Hochsmann C, Martin CK, Apolzan JW, Dorling JL, Newton RL, Denstel KD, Mire EF, Johnson WD, Zhang DC, Arnold CL, Davis TC, Fonseca V, Thethi TK, Lavie CJ, Springgate B, Katzmarzyk PT, PROPEL Res Grp
ObjectiveThis study tested whether initial weight change (WC), self-weighing, and adherence to the expected WC trajectory predict longer-term WC in an underserved primary-care population with obesity. MethodsData from the intervention group (n = 452; 88% women; 74% Black; BMI 37.3 kg/m(2) [SD: 4.6]) of the Promoting Successful Weight Loss in Primary Care in Louisiana trial were analyzed. Initial (2-, 4-, and 8-week) percentage WC was calculated from baseline clinic weights and daily at-home weights. Weights were considered adherent if they were on the expected WC trajectory (10% at 6 months with lower [7.5%] and upper [12.5%] bounds). Linear mixed-effects models tested whether initial WC and the number of daily and adherent weights predicted WC at 6, 12, and 24 months. ResultsPercentage WC during the initial 2, 4, and 8 weeks predicted percentage WC at 6 (R-2 = 0.15, R-2 = 0.28, and R-2 = 0.50), 12 (R-2 = 0.11, R-2 = 0.19, and R-2 = 0.32), and 24 (R-2 = 0.09, R-2 = 0.11, and R-2 = 0.16) months (all p < 0.01). Initial daily and adherent weights were significantly associated with WC as individual predictors, but they only marginally improved predictions beyond initial weight loss alone in multivariable models. ConclusionsThese results highlight the importance of initial WC for predicting long-term WC and show that self-weighing and adherence to the expected WC trajectory can improve WC prediction.